The Real Reason Colleyville's Median Price Won't Sit Still

Pull up three different sites for Colleyville home prices this month and you'll get three different stories. One says values are climbing at a healthy clip. Another says they're down. A third says days on market have collapsed while the median price fell, which is not supposed to happen at the same time. If you're trying to price a listing or figure out what a home should actually cost right now, none of this is reassuring.

Here's what none of those pages will tell you: the contradiction isn't a data error. It's what happens when a city has almost no room left to build, and the little bit of new construction still coming online is expensive enough to distort a small statistical pool before a single one of those homes has even closed.

Three Sites, Three Different Stories

Start with the numbers as they stood heading into summer 2026. Zillow's home value index put the typical Colleyville home at $925,491 as of May 31, 2026, up 1.6 percent over the year, with homes going pending in around seven days. Redfin, looking at the three months ending May 2026, put the median sale price at $1.0 million, up 11 percent year over year, with homes selling in an average of 24 days and 98 closings that month, level with the same month a year earlier.

Then there's Orchard, tracking a trailing 30-day window, which showed the median sale price at $960,000, down 6.5 percent year over year. Only 16 homes closed in that window, compared with 37 a year before. And here's the part that should stop you: in that same shrinking, price-declining window, the median days on market fell to 11 (from 27 the year before), and the share of homes selling above list price jumped to 25 percent (up more than 11 points). Falling prices are not supposed to travel with faster sales and more bidding above asking. That combination only makes sense once you understand what's actually feeding the market right now.

Colleyville Ran Out of Land Before It Ran Out of Buyers

Colleyville has been quietly running out of buildable land for years. New construction here is scarce because there simply isn't much raw acreage left to develop, and most of what remains gets carved into small, intimate subdivisions rather than the large master-planned communities you'd find in a growing exurb. There's no big commercial corridor eating into residential parcels the way Southlake's Town Square does. What's left is a handful of custom infill projects, tucked onto whatever acreage still sits between established neighborhoods.

Right now, four of those projects account for essentially all of the new-construction supply feeding Colleyville's luxury tier:

Add those up and you get 69 total home sites across four projects, in a city where a normal month of resale activity has recently ranged anywhere from 16 to nearly 100 closings depending on which platform is counting and how it draws its window. That is not a large enough base of new supply to move a citywide median on its own, at least not yet. But it's exactly large enough to change what everyone believes a Colleyville acre is worth.

Why Sixteen Sales Can Swing a City's Median

Here's the mechanism. Holt Farms isn't expected to finish construction until fall 2026, per the most recent public update on the project. The Bluffs still had six of nine lots unsold as of that same spring 2026 report. Park Hill had 12 of 16 available the last time the city's development tracker checked in, back in November 2025. None of these projects have meaningfully hit the closed-sales data that Redfin, Orchard, or Zillow report today. Their $1.5 million to $2.5 million price points aren't in the median yet.

But they're already in every conversation about what land in Colleyville is worth. A seller with an older acreage estate on Cheek-Sparger Road sees a builder asking $2.5 million for an unbuilt lot at Park Hill and adjusts expectations upward. A buyer comparing a resale home to a spot at The Bluffs starts anchoring on gated, wooded, one-acre pricing even if they end up buying something else entirely. Meanwhile, the actual homes closing right now in that 30-day snapshot are the older, smaller, faster-moving resale inventory, the kind that sells in 11 days and above asking price precisely because buyers who can't get into one of the four new developments are competing hard for what's left. That's how you get a falling median sitting next to a rising sale-to-list ratio in the same window: the top of the market is being priced by projects that haven't closed a single sale yet, while the middle of the market is absorbing displaced demand and selling fast.

New construction with this little volume doesn't need to close deals to move a market. It only needs to exist.

The Covenant Surprise Waiting Inside the New Gates

There's a second friction point that catches buyers off guard, and it has nothing to do with price. A lot of Colleyville's older custom acreage, particularly along corridors like Cheek-Sparger Road, was built with no HOA at all, which is part of what made "buy an acre in Colleyville and build what you want" a realistic pitch for decades.

The new gated developments do not work that way. The Bluffs at Colleyville requires a minimum of 5,000 square feet for any home built there and holds every design to a formal architectural approval process before ground breaks. Park Hill and Holt Farms are similarly structured as custom communities with a builder of record and a design review layer built in. If you've been picturing a Colleyville acre as a blank canvas because that's how the older parts of the city work, the newest and most talked-about lots come with more rules attached, not fewer. That's worth knowing before you fall in love with a wooded homesite behind a stone wall and assume it behaves like the acreage two streets over.

What This Changes for a Real Price Conversation

None of this means Colleyville is quietly booming or quietly cooling. It means the citywide median is currently a poor tool for pricing any individual property, because it's blending a resale market that's moving fast on its own and a new-construction tier that hasn't closed enough to show up in the numbers but has already reset what buyers expect to pay.

If you're on either side of a transaction here in the second half of 2026, a few things follow from that:

• A resale estate near one of these four developments should be priced against recent comparable closings in its own pocket, not against the citywide median or against unbuilt lot pricing at Park Hill or The Bluffs.
• Buyers comparing new construction to resale should ask what the minimum square footage and architectural review requirements actually are before assuming a wooded acre works like the non-HOA lots elsewhere in the city.
• Anyone using a portal's year-over-year percentage to negotiate, in either direction, should ask what window that number covers and how many actual sales it's built on. In a market where a recent 30-day snapshot reflected only 16 closings, one or two unusual sales can swing the headline number more than any real shift in demand.

This is exactly the kind of pricing conversation that benefits from someone who tracks these projects as they move through the city's approval process rather than someone reading a single portal snapshot. If you're weighing a resale estate against one of these new developments, or trying to figure out what your own Colleyville property is actually worth against a market this uneven, Sherri Murphy and The Ultimate Real Estate Group can walk through the comps that actually apply to your pocket of the city. Let's Connect.

A Few Questions Worth Asking

Are any of these four developments still accepting reservations? The last public updates put Park Hill at 12 of 16 lots available (November 2025), The Bluffs at Colleyville at 6 of 9 remaining (April 2026), and Oak Alley down to 5 lots with the largest at 1.4 acres (October 2025). Holt Farms was reported as fully accounted for as a 10-lot project. Availability moves quickly on projects this small, and some of these figures are already several months old, so any number should be confirmed directly before you make plans around it.

Does this affect homes outside these four developments? Indirectly, yes. Even a resale home with no connection to Holt Farms, Park Hill, The Bluffs, or Oak Alley can get priced or appraised with an eye toward what nearby new construction is asking, especially in pockets where an acreage estate sits within a mile or two of one of these gated projects.

Should I wait for one of these to finish before buying or listing? That depends entirely on your pocket of the city and your timeline. Holt Farms alone isn't expected to complete construction until fall 2026, and the other three projects are moving at their own pace. Waiting on a citywide trend to resolve itself isn't really an option here, since the trend is being driven by a handful of specific streets rather than the market as a whole.